Integrated 15-Year Financial Model for a Satellite Connectivity Joint Venture

What was at stake

A satellite infrastructure provider and a network distribution partner were forming a JV to deliver broadband connectivity across residential, government, and enterprise segments in an underserved regional market. Ownership was split asymmetrically between the two partners. Each would bill the JV for infrastructure costs and receive dividends from operating cash flow.

Before investors were approached or governance documents signed, both partners needed a single model they both trusted.

A model that one partner built and the other accepted under pressure is a dispute waiting to happen.

A model built together, transparent in every assumption, is the foundation the deal can actually stand on.

Nineteen worksheets

The model was built from scratch. Revenue was projected across three customer segments — retail fixed access, retail non-fixed access, and government and enterprise — each with its own ARPU curve, site growth trajectory, and pricing decay schedule across a 15-year horizon. A capacity model tracked site rollout against infrastructure constraints.

AR/AP schedules, a fixed asset schedule, and a balance sheet were integrated and reconciled to the income statement and cash flows each year. The kind of integration that makes a model auditable rather than just presentable — where a number that looks wrong can be traced back to its source rather than explained away.

A separate entity model for the minority partner captured its share of JV proceeds, its standalone income statement, and sources and uses. Four scenario sets — base, conservative, aggressive, and an alternative ownership structure — were built into the assumptions sheet so either partner could stress-test the deal without breaking the model. A condensed five-year investor proforma was extracted for the capital raise deck.

Scenario analysis is only useful if the model can absorb it without requiring a rebuild. The architecture was designed for that from the start — assumptions in one place, outputs flowing from them everywhere.

One set of numbers

The model showed cumulative JV revenue reaching approximately $1B over fifteen years, with EBITDA turning positive in Year 3. Both partners went into their governance and investor conversations with the same numbers and a model they could stand behind and explain.